Bitcoin and Ethereum have veered onto different paths in recent months, with Bitcoin approaching the eye-popping $100,000 mark while Ethereum struggles following its December peak. Part of Bitcoin’s upward momentum is attributed to U.S. president Donald Trump’s predicted plans for the digital currency, fuelling speculation among traders. Meanwhile, a Coinbase executive recently suggested Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity might already be public knowledge, adding yet another layer of intrigue to the world of crypto.
Wall Street powerhouse Goldman Sachs has quietly confirmed its purchase of around $2 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs), significantly increasing its stake. However, some analysts believe Goldman’s move is part of a hedging strategy known as the “basis trade,” not necessarily a bullish, long-term commitment. BlackRock also made headlines by campaigning for a spot Bitcoin ETF in 2023, helping drive U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs to surpass $100 billion in net assets.
Below are three market predictions to watch, complete with approximate odds:
- Bitcoin to Break $110,000 Before April (3/1)
Bitcoin’s soaring trajectory could continue, with strong institutional support and ongoing chatter about large-scale adoption. This 3/1 shot suggests around a 25% chance of breaching $110,000 in the near term, reflecting optimistic sentiment around global demand. - Ethereum to Rebound to $5,000 by Year-End (2/1)
Despite recent struggles, Ethereum’s robust ecosystem—fuelled by DeFi, NFTs, and Layer-2 solutions—makes a rebound plausible. At odds of 2/1 (about a 33% implied probability), the potential value lies in the network’s strong fundamentals, which could quickly regain investor attention. - Bitcoin ETF Approvals to Double in 2024 (4/1)
Spot Bitcoin ETFs hit the market with remarkable momentum, and many experts predict more regulatory greenlights. With odds of 4/1, this outcome has an implied probability of 20%. It represents good value: given the surge of institutional players like Goldman Sachs and BlackRock, the probability could be understated by the market.
Why the Odds Make Sense
Ethereum’s rebound odds (2/1) look particularly appealing from a probability standpoint. If its utility as the backbone of Web3 and DeFi reasserts itself, a one-in-three chance could be an underestimate, making it an attractive prospect for those bullish on ETH’s long-term value.
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